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Conference preview

Big Ten Conference

Our projected 2026 finish, top to bottom — the top two meet in the conference championship — plus each team's game-by-game schedule.

Model projection

Conference favorite

Ohio State

Top of the Big Ten Conference board · 52% to make the 12

Best playoff odds

Oregon

64% chance at the 12-team field

Projected in the 12

5 teams in our 12-team projection

#
Team
Proj W
CFP%
1
Indiana
10.4
63%
2
Oregon
10.3
64%
3
Ohio State
9.3
52%
4
Penn State
8.6
25%
5
USC
8.4
32%
6
Michigan
8.2
31%
7
Iowa
7.5
16%
8
Illinois
7.5
14%
9
Washington
7.5
17%
10
Nebraska
6.5
9%
11
Wisconsin
6.5
7%
12
UCLA
6.3
8%
13
Minnesota
5.5
5%
14
Northwestern
5.5
3%
15
Rutgers
4.7
3%
16
Maryland
4.6
2%
17
Michigan State
4.5
2%
18
Purdue
3.5
1%

Projected wins run each team's real schedule through the model; Rating is national board strength. A strong team on a brutal schedule can out-rate its win total (and vice-versa).

Big Ten Conference championship (projected)

Our top two by projection meet for the title.

Ohio State

Oregon

Oregon is the lean on a neutral field, at about 54%.

Schedule paths

Projected wins, schedule strength, and the weekly edge for each team — the same forecast as the board above.

Illinois

7.5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Ohio State (9%) · Easiest: Southern Illinois (98%)

2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #45

Vegas win total7.5

Maryland

4.6 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Ohio State (3%) · Easiest: Howard (94%)

2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #35

Vegas win total4.5

Michigan

8.2 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Oregon (20%) · Easiest: UTEP (99%)

0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #17

Vegas win total8.5

Michigan State

4.5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Notre Dame (2%) · Easiest: E Michigan (86%)

2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #29

Vegas win total4.5

Minnesota

5.5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Indiana (5%) · Easiest: Eastern Illinois (97%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #16

Vegas win total5.5

Nebraska

6.5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Oregon (7%) · Easiest: North Dakota (98%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #25

Vegas win total6.5

Northwestern

5.5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Oregon (5%) · Easiest: South Dakota State (97%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #14

Vegas win total5.5

Ohio State

9.3 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Indiana (42%) · Easiest: Ball State (100%)

2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #1

Vegas win total9.5

Oregon

10.3 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Ohio State (46%) · Easiest: Portland State (100%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #27

Vegas win total10.5

Penn State

8.6 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Michigan (27%) · Easiest: Buffalo (95%)

0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #38

Vegas win total8.5

Purdue

3.5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Notre Dame (2%) · Easiest: Indiana State (93%)

2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #13

Vegas win total3.5

USC

8.4 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Indiana (22%) · Easiest: San José St (99%)

0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #21

Vegas win total8.5

Washington

7.5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Oregon (11%) · Easiest: Eastern Washington (99%)

1 toss-up · Schedule strength #22

Vegas win total7.5

Wisconsin

6.5 projected wins · 12 games

Toughest: Notre Dame (9%) · Easiest: Western Illinois (97%)

0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #32

Vegas win total6.5

How to read it

Expected wins add up each game's win chance. League wins count only conference games; overall wins include the full schedule. Labels translate those probabilities into plain language: likely win, lean win, toss-up, lean loss, and likely loss. The full national playoff picture lives on the home page.