Conference preview
Our projected 2026 finish, top to bottom — the top two meet in the conference championship — plus each team's game-by-game schedule.
Conference favorite
Texas TechTop of the Big 12 Conference board · 46% to make the 12
Best playoff odds
Texas Tech46% chance at the 12-team field
Projected in the 12
1 team in our 12-team projection
Projected wins run each team's real schedule through the model; Rating is national board strength. A strong team on a brutal schedule can out-rate its win total (and vice-versa).
Our top two by projection meet for the title.
Texas Tech
BYU
Texas Tech is the lean on a neutral field, at about 66%.
Projected wins, schedule strength, and the weekly edge for each team — the same forecast as the board above.
7.4 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas Tech (18%) · Easiest: Northern Arizona (98%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #42
Vegas win total7.5
6.5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas Tech (15%) · Easiest: Morgan State (98%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #12
Vegas win total6.5
8.5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Notre Dame (13%) · Easiest: Utah Tech (99%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #69
Vegas win total8.5
6.4 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas Tech (24%) · Easiest: Prairie View A&M (98%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #33
Vegas win total6.5
5.5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas Tech (18%) · Easiest: Western Carolina (97%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #20
Vegas win total5.5
4.5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas Tech (15%) · Easiest: Weber State (96%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #67
Vegas win total4.5
8.3 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas Tech (22%) · Easiest: Southern (99%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #66
Vegas win total8.5
5.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: BYU (17%) · Easiest: Southeast Missouri State (96%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #30
Vegas win total5.5
5.6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Utah (20%) · Easiest: Long Island University (96%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #88
Vegas win total5.5
8.4 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Arizona State (53%) · Easiest: Nicholls (99%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #80
Vegas win total8.5
5.5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Oregon (7%) · Easiest: Murray State (96%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #44
Vegas win total5.5
6.6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas Tech (14%) · Easiest: Grambling (98%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #39
Vegas win total6.5
10.4 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Baylor (76%) · Easiest: Abilene Christian (99%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #85
Vegas win total10.5
5.6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Houston (18%) · Easiest: Bethune-Cookman (96%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #54
Vegas win total5.5
8.5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Arizona (50%) · Easiest: Idaho (99%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #47
Vegas win total8.5
5.5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Texas Tech (9%) · Easiest: UT Martin (96%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #46
Vegas win total5.5
Expected wins add up each game's win chance. League wins count only conference games; overall wins include the full schedule. Labels translate those probabilities into plain language: likely win, lean win, toss-up, lean loss, and likely loss. The full national playoff picture lives on the home page.