Boston College
3.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Notre Dame (1%) · Easiest: Maine (92%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #24
Vegas win total3.5
Conference preview
Atlantic Coast Conference
Our projected 2026 finish, top to bottom — the top two meet in the conference championship — plus each team's game-by-game schedule.
Model projection
Conference favorite
MiamiTop of the Atlantic Coast Conference board · 58% to make the 12
Best playoff odds
Miami58% chance at the 12-team field
Projected in the 12
1 team in our 12-team projection
#
Team
Rating
Proj W
SOS
Vegas O/U
CFP%
Projected wins run each team's real schedule through the model; Rating is national board strength. A strong team on a brutal schedule can out-rate its win total (and vice-versa).
Atlantic Coast Conference championship (projected)
Our top two by projection meet for the title.
Miami
SMU
Miami is the lean on a neutral field, at about 81%.
Schedule paths
Projected wins, schedule strength, and the weekly edge for each team — the same forecast as the board above.
California
6.5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: SMU (23%) · Easiest: Wagner (97%)
3 toss-ups · Schedule strength #61
Vegas win total6.5
- Toss-up54%
- Wk 2@ SyracuseToss-up55%
- Wk 3vs WagnerLikely Win97%
- Wk 4vs ClemsonLean Loss42%
- Wk 5@ UNLVLean Win56%
- Wk 6Lean Win63%
- Wk 7vs Wake ForestLean Win64%
- Wk 8@ SMULikely Loss23%
- Wk 9@ NC StateLean Loss37%
- Wk 11@ VirginiaLean Loss34%
- Wk 12vs StanfordLikely Win77%
- Wk 13vs PittsburghToss-up48%
Clemson
7.5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Miami (21%) · Easiest: Charleston Southern (98%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #52
Vegas win total7.5
- Likely Loss24%
- Wk 2vs GA SouthernLikely Win91%
- Wk 3Likely Win79%
- Wk 4Lean Win58%
- Wk 5vs MiamiLikely Loss21%
- Wk 7vs Charleston SouthernLikely Win98%
- Wk 8Likely Win77%
- Wk 9Toss-up47%
- Wk 10@ SyracuseLean Win70%
- Wk 11vs Georgia TechLean Win70%
- Wk 12@ DukeLean Win63%
- Wk 13Lean Win55%
Duke
5.9 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Miami (6%) · Easiest: William & Mary (96%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #58
Vegas win total5.5
Florida State
6.4 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Miami (10%) · Easiest: Central Arkansas (98%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #31
Vegas win total6.5
Georgia Tech
6.6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Georgia (11%) · Easiest: Mercer (97%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #53
Vegas win total6.5
- Lean Win68%
- Wk 2vs TennesseeLean Loss34%
- Wk 3vs MercerLikely Win97%
- Wk 4@ StanfordLean Win68%
- Wk 6vs DukeLean Win66%
- Wk 7Toss-up51%
- Wk 8Likely Win80%
- Wk 9Lean Loss36%
- Wk 10vs LouisvilleToss-up48%
- Wk 11@ ClemsonLikely Loss30%
- Wk 12vs Wake ForestLean Win68%
- Wk 13@ GeorgiaLikely Loss11%
Louisville
7.6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Ole Miss (34%) · Easiest: Villanova (98%)
3 toss-ups · Schedule strength #83
Vegas win total7.5
- Lean Loss34%
- Wk 2vs VillanovaLikely Win98%
- Wk 3vs SMUToss-up51%
- Wk 4vs Wake ForestLikely Win76%
- Wk 5@ NC StateToss-up50%
- Wk 6Lean Win60%
- Wk 7@ SyracuseLean Win68%
- Wk 9vs StanfordLikely Win86%
- Wk 10Toss-up52%
- Wk 11Lean Win65%
- Wk 12vs PittsburghLean Win62%
- Wk 13@ KentuckyLean Win55%
Miami
10.4 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Notre Dame (20%) · Easiest: Florida A&M (100%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #60
Vegas win total10.5
- Likely Win92%
- Wk 2vs Florida A&MLikely Win100%
- Wk 3Likely Win91%
- Wk 4vs C MichiganLikely Win98%
- Wk 5@ ClemsonLikely Win79%
- Wk 7Likely Win90%
- Wk 8vs PittsburghLikely Win91%
- Wk 9Likely Win91%
- Wk 10Likely Loss20%
- Wk 11vs DukeLikely Win94%
- Wk 12Likely Win95%
- Wk 13Likely Win97%
NC State
7.5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Florida State (36%) · Easiest: Richmond (97%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #101
Vegas win total7.5
- Lean Loss40%
- Wk 2vs RichmondLikely Win97%
- Wk 3Lean Loss41%
- Wk 4Likely Win85%
- Wk 5vs LouisvilleToss-up50%
- Wk 6vs Wake ForestLean Win69%
- Wk 8@ StanfordLean Win69%
- Wk 9vs CaliforniaLean Win63%
- Wk 10vs DukeLean Win68%
- Wk 11vs SyracuseLikely Win74%
- Wk 12Lean Loss36%
- Wk 13Lean Win57%
North Carolina
4.5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Notre Dame (3%) · Easiest: East Tennessee State (95%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #62
Vegas win total4.5
- Lean Loss34%
- Wk 2vs East Tennessee StateLikely Win95%
- Wk 3@ ClemsonLikely Loss21%
- Wk 5vs Notre DameLikely Loss3%
- Wk 6Likely Loss25%
- Wk 7@ DukeLean Loss38%
- Wk 8vs SyracuseLean Win62%
- Wk 9vs MiamiLikely Loss9%
- Wk 10@ UConnLean Win60%
- Wk 11vs LouisvilleLean Loss35%
- Wk 12@ VirginiaLikely Loss27%
- Wk 13vs NC StateLean Loss43%
Pittsburgh
7.6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Miami (9%) · Easiest: Bucknell (98%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #63
Vegas win total7.5
- Likely Win85%
- Wk 2vs UCFLikely Win73%
- Wk 3vs SyracuseLikely Win77%
- Wk 4vs BucknellLikely Win98%
- Wk 5Lean Win57%
- Wk 6Likely Win75%
- Wk 7Likely Win73%
- Wk 8@ MiamiLikely Loss9%
- Wk 9vs Georgia TechLean Win64%
- Wk 11Lean Win56%
- Wk 12Lean Loss38%
- Wk 13Toss-up52%
SMU
8.6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Notre Dame (6%) · Easiest: UC Davis (99%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #65
Vegas win total8.5
- Lean Win56%
- Wk 2vs UC DavisLikely Win99%
- Wk 3Toss-up49%
- Wk 4vs Missouri StLikely Win94%
- Wk 5Likely Win89%
- Wk 7vs VirginiaLikely Win70%
- Wk 8vs CaliforniaLikely Win77%
- Wk 9@ SyracuseLikely Win74%
- Wk 10Likely Win80%
- Wk 11vs Wake ForestLikely Win81%
- Wk 12Likely Loss6%
- Wk 13@ StanfordLikely Win81%
Stanford
3.6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Notre Dame (1%) · Easiest: Elon (92%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #43
Vegas win total3.5
- Lean Win58%
- Likely Loss8%
- Wk 3@ DukeLikely Loss26%
- Wk 4vs Georgia TechLean Loss32%
- Wk 5Likely Loss28%
- Wk 6Likely Loss1%
- Wk 7vs ElonLikely Win92%
- Wk 8vs NC StateLikely Loss31%
- Wk 9Likely Loss14%
- Wk 11Likely Loss26%
- Wk 12Likely Loss23%
- Wk 13vs SMULikely Loss19%
Syracuse
4.5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Notre Dame (3%) · Easiest: New Hampshire (95%)
2 toss-ups · Schedule strength #72
Vegas win total4.5
- Wk 1vs New HampshireLikely Win95%
- Wk 2vs CaliforniaToss-up45%
- Wk 3Likely Loss23%
- Wk 5@ UConnLean Win56%
- Wk 6@ VirginiaLikely Loss24%
- Wk 7vs LouisvilleLean Loss32%
- Wk 8Lean Loss38%
- Wk 9vs SMULikely Loss26%
- Wk 10vs ClemsonLikely Loss30%
- Wk 11@ NC StateLikely Loss26%
- Wk 12Toss-up52%
- Wk 13vs Notre DameLikely Loss3%
Virginia
7.7 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: SMU (30%) · Easiest: Norfolk State (98%)
0 toss-ups · Schedule strength #70
- Lean Win60%
- Wk 2vs Norfolk StateLikely Win98%
- Wk 3Lean Win63%
- Wk 4vs DelawareLikely Win88%
- Wk 5Lean Loss39%
- Wk 6vs SyracuseLikely Win76%
- Wk 7@ SMULikely Loss30%
- Wk 8vs DukeLean Win70%
- Wk 9Lean Win57%
- Wk 11vs CaliforniaLean Win66%
- Wk 12Likely Win73%
- Wk 13Lean Win55%
Virginia Tech
5.5 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Miami (5%) · Easiest: VMI (96%)
3 toss-ups · Schedule strength #41
- Wk 1vs VMILikely Win96%
- Wk 2vs Old DominionToss-up51%
- Wk 3@ MarylandToss-up50%
- Wk 4Lean Win60%
- Wk 5vs PittsburghLean Loss43%
- Wk 6Lean Loss37%
- Wk 7vs Georgia TechToss-up49%
- Wk 8@ ClemsonLikely Loss23%
- Wk 10@ SMULikely Loss20%
- Wk 11vs StanfordLikely Win74%
- Wk 12@ MiamiLikely Loss5%
- Wk 13vs VirginiaLean Loss45%
Wake Forest
5.6 projected wins · 12 games
Toughest: Miami (9%) · Easiest: Merrimack (96%)
1 toss-up · Schedule strength #56
Vegas win total5.5
How to read it
Expected wins add up each game's win chance. League wins count only conference games; overall wins include the full schedule. Labels translate those probabilities into plain language: likely win, lean win, toss-up, lean loss, and likely loss. The full national playoff picture lives on the home page.